The 2005 spring chinook run on the Columbia system was projected to be one of the largest ever! The actual return proved NOAA's crystal ball is working about as well as the space shuttle. As of yesterday, August 18, a total of 159,000 spring chinook had passed through Bonneville making this by far the poorest return since the river was reopened for sport fishing in 2002.

The sport fishing season opened with high expectations but concentrations of fish failed to materialize. Low numbers of fish showing at Bonneville Dam prompted a closure of the Columbia. Anglers in unprecedented numbers headed for the Willamette. Hog lines filled the river from south of downtown Portland to Oregon City in spite of a miserable catch rate. This year's springer return on the Willamette was only 35,000 fish making it a proportionately poorer return than the Columbia experienced. Finally anglers just gave up on the run. Guides I talked to reported springer trip bookings were less than half of what they were in 2004.

Guide John Gross, from Walterville, called me. "Some springers just showed up on the McKenzie (a tributary of the Willamette). Why don't you come up and go fishing," he said. With the Fourth of July weekend just beginning; John couldn't even scrounge up a booking from his "hot list".

I arrived on the evening of the fourth. The natives were restless. Fireworks in the neighborhood made it impossible to sleep until 2AM. On three hours sleep we headed off for the McKenzie and were in the water at first light.

On our third drift through the hole, right below Leaburg Dam, we hooked and boated a nice hatchery hen on a K-15. An hour or so later, and a little down river we picked up a native buck on roe. Other than a couple noncommittal bumps, that was it for the day. We were the only boat on the water. "For this season, not a bad day," John told me. That was his last springer trip for the season.

For comparison, read the article I wrote about fishing with John in 2003.

The unusual weather across the Northwest this spring was unquestionably a contributing factor for the poor run. There was very little precipitation until late May when a couple of major storms hit the area. However, there was adequate water in the streams and rivers to support the run.

Salmon are extremely sensitive to odors, or taste, of the rivers. They have been shown capable of detecting concentrations as low as 3 parts per million. Because of the timing of the spring rains, many experienced fishermen blamed the poor return on the flavor of the water. "Until the water is just right, those fish aren't coming up river," many said.

Another weather related factor might have been water temperature caused by the dry spring. Others postulated the fish might have just stayed out to sea for another year and we would see larger numbers of very large fish next year.

I ran into Jim Martin, Conservation Director for Pure-Fishing and former ODFW biologist, at the ICAST show in Las Vegas in late July. He suggested there must be something going on in the Pacific we haven't figured out yet. "River conditions alone aren't the reason for the small return," he said. I asked him about the possibility of a lot of this year's run showing up next year and he replied, "Unless the smolt get flushed out to sea when they are small, or river conditions for smolts are poor, which they weren't, those fish can't wait another year to mature. This year's run died out in the Pacific somewhere."

As the first of August rolled around we received numerous reports of a large pool of warm water off the Oregon Coast. The phenomenon is associated with El Nino conditions. During an El Nino the warm thermocline will average about fifteen feet thick. This summer we are not experiencing an El Nino and the thermocline is thirty feet thick. To punctuate how abnormal current conditions are, a Marlin was boated of the Oregon coast in mid July. The normal upwelling of nutrient rich water has totally stopped and bait species have vanished.

It will be very interesting to find out what happened in the Pacific this year and what part ocean conditions played in the 2005 spring chinook run.

If you would like more information on fishing the McKenzie, contact John Gross' Roaring Fork Guide Service at 541.726.7234, EMAIL him, or visit his website, www.oregonfishingtrips.com.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information about El Ninos and fishing see The El Nino & California Fishing.

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